The brackets are out and the heavy favorite is the University of Connecticut, and for good reason, they’re a powerhouse, but I found something that most “experts” are missing about the current champions.

            The Huskies have compiled a record of 31-3 with huge wins over big name programs. They have players returning from last years championship winning program along with some great transfers, notably Cam Spencer (shoutout Loyola, my alum), and new recruits. All of this looks fantastic on paper until you look closely at the games played, notably the scores. When looking at their last 15 games, they are 14-1, just phenomenal, but not a single one of those games has been decided by less than 5 points (A 95-90 win against St. Johns). Even in their lone loss to Creighton, they got blown out by 19, wasn’t really a game. The semi-close win against St. Johns (a game they didn’t trail in since 13 minutes left in the first half) is really an outlier in the back end of their schedule as they had a win differential of +257 in their last 15 games. Pure dominance, but my hypothesis is that never playing in a close game since January can really hurt them coming down the stretch in March and April.

            Now you might say, who cares? They’re dominant and they should continue to roll over everyone, and you might be right, but let’s look at champions in the previous years that had records similar to the Huskies of this year.

Baylor 2021 (22-2 coming into the tourney, COVID year)

• Baylor had plenty of close games. Coming down the stretch they had an overtime game, a win over Iowa State by 5, a loss to Ok. State by 9, and a win over Kansas State by 6. All very close games that prepared them for the tourney.

Virginia 2019 (29-3 coming into tourney)

• Had close games against Louisville (5 point win), Virginia Tech (6 point win), Notre Dame (6 point win), and a loss to Florida State in the ACC championship by 10. Point differential in last 15 games: +178.

Villanova 2018 (30-4 coming into tourney)

• Had 3 overtime games in their last 6, including a loss to Creighton and a 5-point loss to Providence. Point differential in last 15 games: +180.

Duke 2015 (29 – 4 coming into tourney)

• Lost in the ACC tourney by 10 to Notre Dame and had two overtime wins late in the season (North Carolina and Virginia Tech) Point differential in last 15 games: +160

Kentucky 2012 – (32-2 coming into tourney)

• Even one of the greatest teams in college basketball history had their tests coming down the stretch. This team lost in the SEC championship by 7 to Vanderbilt and had a tight 3-point win in the game before it. Point differential in last 15 games: +191

The list goes on and on with these great teams who were challenged down the stretch. The one team who I found that has a similar type end of season and dominance throughout the season was Gonzaga 2016-2017. Coming down the stretch, this team was blowing opponents out. Their closest game was an 8 point win in the WAC championship game. They did lose to BYU in their last regular season game but by 8, not that close of a game. In their last 15 games Gonzaga in 2016-2017 had a point differential of +342, which is an absolutely insane number. This team would go far, but in a tight game against North Carolina in the championship, they faltered and took the loss.

            We also must face the facts that this is not the same team as last year. They lost a lot of experience including three NBA players and have some new faces that still must prove themselves on the biggest stage in college basketball. Their conference was not the best either, with only three teams getting into the big dance. Sure, I may be saying this because I didn’t pick them to win it all, but I have a bad feeling about their strength of games and how that will convert into March. It’s tough to find any weakness in this UCONN team but if there was to be a weakness it would be everything I have listed above. So, fill out your brackets, but keep me in the back of your mind as you think about picking UCONN to win it all.